CEO by Day. Researcher by Night.
Welcome to the 1st edition of The German Real Estate Brief.
Four signals to watch this week: public sentiment on housing allocation is hardening, “Schrottimmobilien” are back on the political agenda, broker reliance stays high, and permits are ticking up — but delivery is still the bottleneck.
This week in 30 seconds
A big majority wants stronger support for average earners (not just classic social housing).
A generational split is emerging: younger households are more open to downsizing debates.
Policymakers are revisiting tools against neglected, vacant buildings in prime locations.
Broker share in big-city listings remains elevated.
Permits rise, but completions remain far below what’s needed.
— Nick
1) Housing shortage survey: “Older people should move out” — younger respondents say yes
What happened? A representative survey (Immowelt “Wohnraummangel-Barometer” n=1000) shows a broad consensus that Germany’s housing market is out of balance — and reveals a generational fault line on space allocation.
Should old people move out to make space for younger families?
When asked about other topics:
86% want easier access to KfW support programs
85% want stronger subsidies for average-income households
67% support state intervention to activate vacancies
64% say there are too few social housing units; 63% say there are too few homes for normal earners
Why it matters: The debate is shifting from “build more” to also include “use existing space better.” Expect more policy (and controversy) around incentives for moving, downsizing, and vacancy activation. Source
2) “Schrottimmobilien”: Bundestag debates tougher tools against neglected buildings
What happened? Germany’s housing shortage collides with a visible paradox: prime inner-city buildings sitting empty and decaying because owners don’t maintain them. Tagesschau illustrates this with cases from Landau (Pfalz) and Andernach, and connects it to a Bundestag debate on how far municipalities should be allowed to go.
The politics: Greens vs Left vs Government
Greens: want cities to be able to buy problem properties more easily/cheaply (stronger municipal acquisition tools).
The Left: goes further, pushing for expropriation as an option in severe neglect cases.
CDU/CSU + SPD: point to ongoing work on a Baugesetzbuch reform and a plan to strengthen municipal pre-emption rights (“Vorkaufsrecht”) for “Schrottimmobilien.”
Existing instruments are often a “toothless tiger.” He adds reforms are possible — but warns: “It will always cost money — and there will still be lawsuits.”
Why it matters: This is “hidden supply”: homes exist, but can’t be used. If reforms speed up enforcement and clarify municipal powers, cities could unlock housing without new land — but the fight will be over property rights vs public interest, plus who carries the legal and financial risk when cases drag through courts.
Sources (Bundestag briefs) Greens & Left Party
What happened? Sprengnetter + ImmoScout24 data (summarized by AssCompact) show broker-mediated listings remain structurally important in major cities.
Key numbers
65% of listings via brokers in the 10 largest cities (Q4 2025)
City examples: Leipzig 75%, Stuttgart 71%, Essen 70% … Dortmund 57%
Why it matters: High broker involvement signals continued demand for advisory support (pricing realism, renovation/energy requirements, complexity). For transaction ecosystems (lenders, platforms, proptech), the broker channel remains a major distribution layer.
4) Building permits rise again — but it may be “momentum,” not a turnaround
What happened? Destatis data show permits increasing again after a weak period — but experts warn against assuming this quickly becomes completed homes.
Permits are rising but far from the 400K target
Key numbers
Nov 2025: 20,100 dwellings permitted (+12.5% YoY)
Jan–Nov 2025: 215,500 permits (+11.3% YoY)
Political target often cited: 400,000/year (still far away)
1.4 million missing apartments (Germany-wide)
Why it matters: Permits are an early indicator — the real constraint is still financing conditions, build costs, and execution capacity. Expect 2026 to be a “credibility year” for whether reforms translate into completions.
What we’re watching next
Vacancy activation vs new-build: more political energy behind “use existing stock.”
Funding stability: pressure for multi-year, predictable programs (KFW & Mortgage Rates)
Implementation speed: Legal/process reform is becoming as important as subsidy levels
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— Nick Mulder // The German Real Estate Brief